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Nehezebb-e új eszmékre találni? N. Bloom – C. Jones – J. Van Reenen – M. Webb

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Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

Nicholas Bloom – Stanford University and NBER
Charles I. Jones – Stanford University and NBER
John Van Reenen – MIT and NBER
Michael Webb – Stanford University
September 6, 2017 — Version 1.0
Abstract
In  many  growth  models,  economic  growth  arises  from  people  creating  ideas,
and the long-run growth rate is the product of two terms:  the effective number of
researchers and their research productivity.  We present a wide range of evidence
from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising
substantially while research productivity is declining sharply.  A good example is
Moore’s  Law. The  number  of  researchers  required  today  to  achieve  the  famous
doubling every two years of the density of computer chips is more than 18 times
larger than the number required in the early 1970s.  Across a broad range of case
studies at various levels of (dis)aggregation, we find that ideas — and in particular
the  exponential  growth  they  imply  —  are  getting  harder  and  harder  to  find.  
Exponential growth results from the large increases in research effort that offset its
declining productivity.

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